The 2026 Treasurer Stress Test

If your treasury survives this, it survives anything.

Everyone talks about resilience. Few test it properly.
So let’s stop pretending and run a real stress test on the modern treasurer.

Not a regulatory box-ticking exercise. A reality check.

Step 1: Liquidity shock

It’s 08:30 on a Monday.

Your revolving credit facility is suddenly “under review.”
One key bank reduces limits, quietly, via a phone call
Cash visibility is T+1 in three countries, T+5 in one you forgot about

Stress question:
Do you know, today, how long your company survives without external funding?

If the answer starts with “roughly” or “I think,” congratulations, you’re already sweating.

Step 2: FX and rates stop behaving

Rates stay higher for longer, again.
FX volatility spikes, again.
Hedging costs are no longer theoretical line items; they’re budget killers.

Your hedge ratios are based on volumes that procurement “adjusted.”
Accounting wants effectiveness, and the business wants flexibility
The CFO wants certainty, which is adorable

Stress question:
Can you explain your FX strategy in five minutes, without a deck, and still sound convincing?

Step 3: Payments and fraud pressure

Instant payments are standard. Fraudsters are faster than your controls.

Confirmation of Payee exists, but only sometimes, in some countries
One supplier changes bank details on a Friday afternoon
AP wants speed, audit wants proof, IT wants a ticket

Stress question:
If something goes wrong, can you prove treasury did the right thing?

Step 4: Technology reality check

You own a TMS. It works. Sort of.

Cash and payments live
FX module licensed, not used
Forecasting is done in Excel because “it’s quicker.”

Stress question:
Are you running treasury, or babysitting systems you never fully implemented?

Step 5: The human factor

This is the one nobody models.

One key treasury person leaves
Documentation is outdated
Knowledge lives in heads, not processes

Stress question:
If you are out for six weeks, does Treasury keep running, or just panic politely?

The uncomfortable conclusion

The 2026 treasurer is not stressed because the job is harder.
They’re stressed because complexity crept in quietly, year by year, until everything became interconnected and fragile.

The winners won’t be the ones with the fanciest tools.
They’ll be the ones who:

Simplified where others added layers
Documented what others “just knew.”
Challenged banks, systems, and assumptions early

Final test

Ask yourself one last question, honestly:

If I had to explain my entire treasury setup to a new CFO next week, would I feel confident or defensive?

If it’s the second one, welcome to the 2026 stress test. You’re not failing. You’re just human.

Now do something about it.

At Pecunia, we don’t add complexity.

We help treasuries simplify, strengthen, and structure themselves before the stress test happens.

Whether it’s interim leadership, treasury transformation, TMS optimisation, liquidity strategy, or simply an experienced second pair of eyes, we make sure your treasury doesn’t just survive 2026. It leads through it.